The disintegration of the world's other industrial giant – the communist empire of the Soviet Union – was just as unthinkable and unexpected.  Its breakup was a possible harbinger of what we can expect for the American industrial empire, as bloated bureaucracies buckle and splinter under the weight of their own excess.

The premise of the American Dream is unlimited growth in the consumption of energy and resources.  However, growth cannot be sustained in the real world of limits.  Consider what will happen when oil, natural gas, fresh water and topsoil all become scarce.  Add global climate change, toxic overload, and the loss of biodiversity to the mix.  The result is a recipe for the collapse of complex social systems.  At this point, the question is not if, but when.

If you think this is far-fetched, we encourage you to investigate the evidence below.  The mathematical expression of risk is the product of probability and consequences.  In this case, even a moderate probability results in a very large risk, because the consequences are staggering.  Think of how a nation will feed itself when there is little oil to run the farm machinery and the fertility of the soil drops in the absence of fertilizer and the aquifers for irrigation dry up and the heat radically alters growing zones and decimated insect populations (in a toxic and bioengineered world) fail to pollinate the crops that somehow manage to survive all of that.

If you think that advanced technology will save the day, think again.  Every alternative energy source is either a poor substitute for fossil fuels or is intrinsically linked to the availability of such fuels.  Even uranium is a limited resource whose extraction depends on oil-driven machinery.  Even solar panels require an advanced energy-intensive chemical industry.  Furthermore, there are no substitutes at all for clean water, clean air, rich topsoil, a temperate climate, and an abundant wealth of diverse life.  There is no substitute for an unspoiled planet.

— October 2004